Pace Calculator

Enter a target time or target pace and get your full race breakdown: splits, heat adjustment and wind adjustment all in one place.

The Pace Lab is a free race pace calculator for runners training for 5K, 10K, half marathon and marathon. It calculates pace per km and pace per mile, generates full split plans with negative and positive split strategies, and applies research-backed adjustments for temperature, wind and elevation. Built and maintained by David Lucy at thepacelab.com.

Distance
Mode
Target Finish Time
Even
← Negative split  |  Even  |  Positive split →
Please enter a valid time or pace.
Heat Adjustment
Peer-reviewed sources

PMC Mantzios et al. (2022) — 1,258-race analysis of Olympic endurance events across 42 countries. Found optimal air temperature of 10–17.5°C, with performance declining ~0.3–0.4% per degree outside that window.

PubMed Ely et al. (2007), Med Sci Sports Exerc — Marathon data from 7 major races. Quantified performance decrements by ability level; mid-pack runners affected more than elites per degree of heat.

This tool applies a distance-scaling factor (shorter races are less heat-sensitive than marathons). Individual responses vary with acclimatisation and hydration. Results are indicative.
Race Day Temperature (°C)

Uses your target time and distance from the calculator above.

The Pace Lab's heat adjustment tool calculates the effect of race-day temperature on marathon, half marathon, 10K and 5K pace, based on peer-reviewed research by Mantzios et al. (2022) and Ely et al. (2007). It is free to use at thepacelab.com.

Wind Adjustment
Peer-reviewed sources

J.Physiol Pugh (1971) — landmark wind tunnel study. Found oxygen consumption increases with the square of wind velocity: a 20 km/h headwind is four times harder than a 10 km/h one. View study

J.Appl.Physiol Davies (1980) — confirmed the square-law relationship and established that drafting 1 m behind another runner eliminates up to 80% of wind resistance. View study

SAGE 2025 Beaumont & Polidori (2025) — CFD modelling found a 30 km/h headwind increases energy expenditure by 37%, while the same tailwind reduces it by only 9%. View study

The critical asymmetry: headwinds hurt you far more than tailwinds help. On an out-and-back course you always lose net time versus calm conditions.
Wind Speed (km/h)
Wind Direction

Uses your target time and distance from the calculator above.

The Pace Lab's wind adjustment tool calculates headwind, tailwind, crosswind and out-and-back wind effects on running pace, based on the aerodynamics research of Pugh (1971) and Davies (1980). It is free to use at thepacelab.com.

Please run the pace calculator above first, then enter a wind speed.
Elevation Adjustment
Peer-reviewed sources

Physiol Dill (1965) — established that the oxygen cost of running uphill is 1.31ml O2 per metre climbed per kg bodyweight. The foundation of all modern GAP (Grade Adjusted Pace) calculations used by Strava and Garmin.

J.Exp.Biol Minetti et al. (2002) — derived the full energy cost curve from -45% to +45% grade. Found energy cost at 45% grade is 5.5x flat running. The asymmetry: every 1% uphill costs ~12–15 sec/mile, every 1% downhill only returns ~8 sec/mile.

TrainingPeaks — Normalized Graded Pace (McGregor)
Course Elevation

Uses your target time and distance from the calculator above.

The Pace Lab's elevation adjustment tool calculates the effect of course elevation gain and loss on marathon and half marathon finish time and pace, using the Dill (1965) oxygen cost model and Minetti et al. (2002) graded running formula — the same science behind Strava and Garmin Grade Adjusted Pace. It is free to use at thepacelab.com.

Please run the pace calculator above first, then enter elevation data.
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Race Predictor

Enter a recent result and get predicted times and paces across all distances. Uses Riegel's endurance formula.

Your Recent Race
Your Finish Time
Please enter a valid time and distance.
Predicted Race Times

Formula: T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)^1.06 (Riegel, 1977). Indicative targets — individual variation applies.

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Fuelling Guide

Evidence-based carbohydrate, hydration and electrolyte targets for race day. Enter your details for a personalised starting point.

This is general sports nutrition information, not medical advice. The figures here are derived from published sports science research and are intended as starting points for healthy adult runners. Individual needs vary significantly. If you have any medical conditions, dietary requirements or concerns, consult a registered sports dietitian or healthcare professional before making changes to your race nutrition. The golden rule always applies: test everything in training first.
Your Race Fuel Calculator
Please enter a valid time.
Carbohydrate — The Primary Fuel

Your body stores roughly 400–600g of glycogen in muscle and 90–120g in the liver — enough to fuel about 90 minutes of hard running. Beyond that, performance deteriorates sharply without exogenous carbohydrate intake. This is the physiological basis of "hitting the wall."

Under 60 min
0–30g/hr
Stored glycogen sufficient. Mouth rinse with carbohydrate may still help via neural signals.
60–90 min
30–60g/hr
10K to half marathon range. Start fuelling from 30–40 min in.
90 min–3 hrs
60–90g/hr
Half marathon to marathon. Multi-transport carbs (glucose+fructose 2:1) required above 60g.
3+ hrs (trained gut)
90–120g/hr
Elite and ultra marathon range. Requires systematic gut training. 1:0.8 glucose-fructose ratio.
Why the 2:1 (or 1:0.8) glucose-fructose ratio matters

Glucose is absorbed via SGLT1 transporters, which saturate at about 60g/hr. Fructose uses a separate GLUT5 pathway. By combining both, total absorption rises to 90g/hr or beyond. Elites including Eliud Kipchoge use a 1:0.8 ratio at intakes of 90–120g/hr. Source: Jeukendrup (2014, PMC), JAP (2023).

Train your gut — it is a trainable organ

Regular fuelling in training increases intestinal carbohydrate absorption capacity by 20–40% over 6–8 weeks. 30–90% of endurance athletes experience GI issues in races, almost always because they try higher intakes on race day than they practised in training. Never take anything on race day you haven't tested.

Hydration

Individual sweat rates range from 0.5 to 2.5 litres per hour — wide enough that generic guidance has limited value. The most reliable protocol is drinking to thirst. Forcing fluids beyond thirst risks hyponatremia (dangerously low blood sodium), which can be more serious than dehydration.

Typical cool conditions
400–600ml/hr
Drink to thirst. Sip at each station rather than gulping.
Warm / hot conditions
600–900ml/hr
Heat increases sweat rate 50–100%. Electrolytes become critical. Separate carb from fluid sources.

A simple pre/post-run weigh-in reveals your personal sweat rate: 1kg of body weight lost equals approximately 1 litre of sweat. Aim to replace 70–80% during the run, with the remainder post-race.

Electrolytes and Sodium

Sodium is the key electrolyte for endurance runners. It maintains fluid balance, prevents hyponatremia, and helps retain the fluid you drink. Sweat sodium concentration varies considerably between individuals (200–2,000mg/litre), which is why personalised testing (e.g. Precision Hydration's sweat test) is valuable for longer races.

General target
300–600mg/hr
Sodium. Scale up in heat.
Heavy sweaters
800–1200mg/hr
If you finish runs with white salt residue on skin or clothing.
Source
Sports drinks, electrolyte tabs, or salt-containing gels. Salty real food on ultra distances.
Caffeine

Caffeine is one of the most well-evidenced legal performance enhancers in endurance sport. It reduces perceived effort, sharpens focus and improves time-to-exhaustion. A 2023 meta-analysis (Wang et al.) confirmed significant endurance performance benefits.

Evidence-based dose
1–3mg/kg
e.g. 70–210mg for a 70kg runner. A caffeinated gel is typically 75–100mg.
Timing
Pre-race 30–45 min before start, then one or two during the race at the halfway point and 30–40 min from finish. Always test in training.
Pre-Race and Carb Loading

For half marathon and marathon, carbohydrate loading in the 48–72 hours before the race increases muscle glycogen by 20–40%. Target approximately 10g of carbohydrate per kg of body weight across the final 48 hours, from familiar low-fibre, low-fat foods. Race morning: eat 2–3 hours before the start, high-carb, low-fibre. A small gel 10–15 minutes before the gun tops up blood glucose as you begin.

The golden rule

Nothing new on race day. Every product, timing and quantity should have been tested on a long training run. Your gut does not care about your race entry fee.

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Elevation Adjustment

Hilly courses always cost more time than the distance alone suggests. Calculate your grade-adjusted pace and estimated finish time.

Course Profile
Please enter elevation data and a target pace.
The Science of Elevation Cost

The critical asymmetry: uphills cost far more than downhills return. Every 1% of uphill gradient costs approximately 12–15 seconds per mile (7–9 seconds per km), while every 1% of downhill gradient returns only about 8 seconds per mile (5 seconds per km). This means a hilly course with equal gain and loss will always be slower than a flat course of the same distance.

For every 1% increase in grade, energy expenditure increases by approximately 3–4%, meaning a 5% grade requires 15–20% more energy than flat running. Downhills do not simply return this energy — eccentric muscle loading on descents creates fatigue and damage that affects overall performance.

The calculations here are based on the Dill (1965) oxygen cost model and the simplified Minetti (2002) graded running formula — the same underlying science used by Strava and Garmin for Grade Adjusted Pace (GAP). Sources: Runners Connect, TrainingPeaks (McGregor).

Heartbreak Hill example

Heartbreak Hill at the Boston Marathon — approximately 0.4 miles at 4.5% grade — costs roughly 21–27 seconds even at hard effort. This tool applies the same logic to your entire course profile.

Pacing Strategy on Hilly Courses

The single most important rule: run by effort on uphills, not pace. Trying to maintain flat pace up a hill massively overloads your cardiovascular system and will cost you far more time later in the race than the time "saved."

Controlled downhills are your opportunity. The energy is effectively free — gravity does the work — but you must be careful of quads burning out from eccentric loading. Leaning slightly forward, shortening stride and increasing cadence on descents reduces damage.

On steep uphills above about 15–20% grade, walking is often faster and always more energy-efficient than running. Most elite trail runners walk the steepest climbs.

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Race Guides

Course-specific pacing guides with real elevation profiles, typical conditions, and pre-loaded calculators. Select a race to get started.

UK Marathons
World Marathon Majors

Race Pace Reference Guide

Common target times and the paces you need to hit them. Use the calculator above for any custom distance or time.

5K Pace Chart

Target Time Per KM Per Mile
15:003:00/km4:50/mi
18:003:36/km5:48/mi
20:004:00/km6:26/mi
25:005:00/km8:03/mi
30:006:00/km9:39/mi
40:008:00/km12:52/mi

10K Pace Chart

Target Time Per KM Per Mile
30:003:00/km4:50/mi
40:004:00/km6:26/mi
45:004:30/km7:15/mi
50:005:00/km8:03/mi
60:006:00/km9:39/mi
75:007:30/km12:04/mi

Half Marathon Pace Chart

Target Time Per KM Per Mile
1:30:004:16/km6:52/mi
1:45:004:58/km8:00/mi
2:00:005:41/km9:09/mi
2:15:006:24/km10:18/mi
2:30:007:06/km11:27/mi
3:00:008:31/km13:44/mi

Marathon Pace Chart

Target Time Per KM Per Mile
3:00:004:16/km6:52/mi
3:30:004:58/km8:00/mi
4:00:005:41/km9:09/mi
4:30:006:23/km10:17/mi
5:00:007:06/km11:27/mi
6:00:008:31/km13:44/mi

Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know about race pacing.

What pace do I need to run a sub-2 hour half marathon?

You need to run faster than 5:41 per kilometre (9:09 per mile) to finish a half marathon in under two hours. In practice, most coaches recommend targeting 1:58 to 1:59 to allow for GPS drift, crowded starts and the natural unevenness of race-day pacing. Use the calculator above with a target of 1:58:00 to get your full split plan.

What pace do I need to run a sub-4 hour marathon?

A sub-4 hour marathon requires a pace of 5:41 per kilometre (9:09 per mile) across all 42.195km. Most coaches recommend aiming for 3:57 to account for crowded starts and natural drift — run the calculator at 3:57 to see exactly what splits that requires.

What is a good marathon pace?

A "good" marathon pace is entirely relative to the individual. For context: the average London Marathon finish time is around 4:45 to 5:00, which requires roughly 6:45 to 7:05 per km. A competitive club runner typically targets 3:00 to 3:30 (4:16 to 4:58 per km). An elite amateur might aim for sub-2:45 (3:54/km). Use the Race Predictor tool to estimate your marathon potential from a recent 5K or 10K time.

What is the difference between pace and speed?

Pace is the time it takes to cover one unit of distance — for example, 5:30 per kilometre. Speed is distance covered per unit of time — for example, 10.9 km/h. The two are reciprocals of each other. Runners typically work in pace because it directly tells you how long each kilometre or mile will take, making race planning and split management more intuitive than working in speed.

What is a negative split and why is it the best race strategy?

A negative split means running the second half of a race faster than the first. It works because going out conservatively preserves glycogen stores and delays fatigue — meaning you have more left to give in the final kilometres when others are slowing. Nearly every marathon world record has been set with an even or slight negative split. Use the split slider in the calculator above to plan one for your target distance.

How much slower is a half marathon than a 5K?

Using Riegel's endurance formula, most runners run their half marathon at roughly 8 to 12 percent slower pace per km than their 5K. For example, a 25-minute 5K runner (5:00/km) would typically predict around 55 to 57 minutes for a 10K and 1:58 to 2:02 for a half marathon. The exact drop-off varies by training base — runners with strong aerobic conditioning lose less pace over longer distances. Enter your 5K time in the Race Predictor to see your personalised predictions.

How does temperature affect my running pace?

Heat slows you down more than most runners expect. The optimal air temperature for endurance running is 10 to 17.5°C. Above that, performance declines around 0.3 to 0.4 percent per degree — so at 25°C, a recreational marathoner can realistically expect to be 5 to 8 percent slower, adding 12 to 20 minutes to a 4-hour target. Sources: Mantzios et al. 2022 and Ely et al. 2007.

How does wind affect running pace?

The energy cost of running into a headwind increases with the square of wind speed — a 20 km/h headwind is four times harder than a 10 km/h one, not twice. Headwinds hurt far more than tailwinds help: a 10 mph headwind slows marathon-pace runners by around 10 to 12 seconds per mile, while the same tailwind saves only 3 to 5 seconds. On an out-and-back course you always lose net time to wind. Drafting 1 metre behind another runner eliminates up to 80% of wind resistance. Sources: Pugh (1971) and Davies (1980).

What is Riegel's race time prediction formula?

Riegel's formula predicts race times across distances: T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1) ^ 1.06. The exponent 1.06 captures the fact that running efficiency degrades at longer distances. It is widely used by coaches and accurate to within a few percent for most recreational runners. Enter any recent result in the Race Predictor to see predicted times for 1 mile, 5K, 10K, half marathon and marathon. Riegel 1981 (PubMed).

How do I calculate a negative split for a marathon?

To run a negative split marathon, aim to run the first half around 1 to 2 percent slower than your target average pace, and the second half 1 to 2 percent faster. For a 4-hour marathon (5:41/km average), that means starting at around 5:46 to 5:50/km and finishing at 5:32 to 5:36/km. Use the split slider in the pace calculator above — set it to 2 to 5% negative — and it will generate your per-kilometre split plan automatically.

What are the main marathon training methodologies and how do they differ?

There are several well-established training frameworks. The differences come down to how they distribute training intensity across the week — specifically how much hard work you do, and when.

Jack Daniels (VDOT)

Pace-based training derived from VO2max (expressed as VDOT). Five named intensities: Easy, Marathon, Threshold, Interval, Repetition. Famous for precise pace prescriptions calculated from your current race fitness. Strong evidence base — Daniels is one of the most cited coaches in exercise science. Best for runners who like structure and data.

Pete Pfitzinger (Pfitz)

Higher mileage than Daniels, with medium-long runs mid-week as the signature differentiator. Plans typically run 70–85+ miles/week at the high end. Emphasises lactate threshold work and marathon-pace running. Popular with runners who want to maximise volume without full Lydiard-style periodisation. The 18/55 and 18/70 plans are widely used for London and Boston training.

80/20 (Polarised Training)

Popularised by Stephen Seiler and Matt Fitzgerald. Around 80% of training at genuinely easy effort (Zone 1–2), 20% at hard effort (Zone 4–5), with minimal time at moderate/threshold intensity. Counterintuitive but supported by a growing body of research — most amateur runners do too much moderate-intensity work and not enough truly easy running. Prevents chronic low-level fatigue accumulation. Well-suited to time-pressed runners who train 5–6 hours per week.

Norwegian Singles (Double Threshold)

The system behind Jakob Ingebrigtsen and other Norwegian elites. Two threshold sessions per day (hence "doubles"), running at lactate threshold for extended periods. The key differentiator is using blood lactate testing to confirm you stay below threshold — not pace or heart rate alone. Extremely high volume of threshold work compared to other systems. Not recommended for recreational runners without lactate testing capability. The version gaining traction is "Norwegian Singles" — one threshold session per day at monitored lactate, highly systematic. Effective but demanding.

Lydiard (Periodisation Base)

Arthur Lydiard's original framework from the 1960s underpins much of modern endurance training. A long aerobic base-building phase (months of easy mileage) followed by hill training, then track/speed work, then racing. Emphasises the aerobic base as the non-negotiable foundation. Many modern plans (including Pfitz) borrow the periodisation structure if not the full volume.

FIRST (Run Less, Run Faster)

Three quality runs per week — tempo, intervals, and long run — supplemented by cross-training. Designed for time-constrained runners or those injury-prone on higher mileage. Results are mixed in research — it works for some runners but the lack of easy volume limits aerobic development. Best suited to runners who cannot handle 5+ days of running per week.

The honest answer is that most successful runners combine elements of multiple systems. The training methodology matters less than consistency, adequate volume, and genuinely easy easy days. The research broadly supports: more easy volume, less junk mileage at moderate intensity, periodic hard sessions that are actually hard.

About The Pace Lab

Built by David Lucy — marketing man and keen runner.